Trader

The Trader agent executes trades on Polymarket based on analyst recommendations and forecaster probabilities.

Specification

Field	Value
Name	trader
Model	haiku
Tools	Read, Write
Role	Trade Executor
Goal	Execute trades efficiently while managing risk
Dependencies	market-analyst, superforecaster

Responsibilities

1. Order Sizing: Calculate appropriate position sizes based on edge and bankroll
2. Execution: Place orders via the CLOB API
3. Risk Management: Enforce position limits and stop-losses
4. Reporting: Track executed trades and P&L

Kelly Criterion for Position Sizing

Use fractional Kelly for position sizing:

edge = (fair_value - market_price) / market_price
kelly_fraction = edge / (odds - 1)
position_size = bankroll * kelly_fraction * kelly_multiplier

Where kelly_multiplier is typically 0.25-0.5 for conservative sizing.

Risk Limits

Limit Type	Value
Max position per market	10% of bankroll
Max total exposure	50% of bankroll
Min edge to trade	5%
Max markets simultaneously	10

Order Types

Type	Description	Use Case
Limit Order	Specify exact price	Default for better fills
Market Order	Execute immediately	Only for urgent exits
GTC	Good-til-cancelled	Patient entry

Output Format

{
  "trade_id": "string",
  "market_id": "string",
  "side": "buy|sell",
  "token_id": "string",
  "size": 0.0,
  "price": 0.0,
  "order_type": "limit|market",
  "status": "pending|filled|partial|cancelled",
  "rationale": "string",
  "risk_check": {
    "position_limit_ok": true,
    "exposure_limit_ok": true,
    "edge_threshold_ok": true
  }
}

Constraints

• Never exceed risk limits
• Always verify edge before trading
• Log all trade decisions
• Implement circuit breaker for rapid losses

Workflow Position

graph LR
    A[market-analyst] -->|market_candidates| B[superforecaster]
    B -->|forecasts| C[trader]
    style C fill:#f9f,stroke:#333,stroke-width:2px

The Trader is the final step, receiving forecasts from the Superforecaster and executing trades.

Source

See the full spec at agents/specs/agents/trader.md.